Where do things stand in the special election for the vacant 37th Senate District seat (which includes Anaheim west of the 57 Freeway)?
Thus far, the communication to voters has come almost totally from the Don Wagner for Senate campaign in the form of mail, phone banking, precinct walking and cable TV advertising. Although vote-by-mail ballots went out almost two weeks ago, here at Casa Cunningham we have had no voter contact from the John Moorlach campaign, but have received several mailers from both the Wagner campaign and anti-Moorlach IE committees – plus the Wagner campaign has walked our area.
Some of the most recent mailers we’ve received include the second hit from the California Homeowners Association:
And this anti-Moorlach hit from the Wagner campaign:
According to the OC Registrar of Voters, 258,760 vote-by-mail ballots have been mailed out; 28,556 have been returned. Of those, 17,020 are from Republicans and only 5,783 from Democrats.
13,340 ballots are from cities Wagner has represented in the Assembly and on South OC Community College District Board, while 12,557 come from 2nd Supervisor District cities. Early polling showed Moorlach with a 13-point soft name ID advantage, and polling I heard about from a couple of weeks ago pegged that advantage at 4 points. Neither result is surprising. At the same time, Wagner’s campaign is the only one really communicating with voters. It’s also useful to remember that in their 2nd Supervisor District contest, Allan Mansoor had Michelle Steel – the eventual winner – beat handily in terms of name ID.
Wagner Keeps Fundraising Advantage
In a blog post last week, Moorlaach said he had raised $40,000 at a February 11 fundraiser. And as of the end of February, filings show he has raised at least $43,525. The problem is Moorlach’s fundraising isn’t keeping pace with Don Wagner’s. It isn’t even close: by comparison, Wagner has raised at least $174,377 since February 1.
Money isn’t everything in a campaign, but it counts for an awful lot because it’s impossible to mount a meaningful effort to communicate with more than a quarter of a million voters – and that’s only counting voter-by-mail voters – without. As it stands, Moorlach has raised enough to send out four, maybe five mailers to hi-propensity voters, while Wagner has resources to far outpace that level of voter contact.