Insightful Analysis Of The 3rd Supervisor District Special Election

Map of the 3rd Supervisor District

Republican consultant Chris Nguyen offers this insightful analysis of the results of this week’s special election to fill the 3rd Supervisor District vacancy:

  • All 7 candidates lost their respective hometowns
  • Sanchez won Irvine, Silverado, and Tustin; she won an absolute majority in Silverado
    • Not surprising that Sanchez won Irvine, as that was the linchpin of the Democratic victories in 2018, but Wagner being Mayor blunted her margin of victory there
    • Silverado is obviously still upset about the homeless shelter proposal
  • Mission Viejo split evenly, but they have an infinitesimally tiny number of voters in the 3rd District
  • Wagner won everywhere else, with absolute majorities in North Tustin, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda
  • Poll voters were more partisan than absentee voters everywhere except Tustin; every city Sanchez won (except Tustin), she won bigger at the polls than absentees; every city Wagner won, he won bigger at the polls than absentees
    • The weird exception is Tustin, which narrowly went for Sanchez in absentees and narrowly for Wagner at the polls
  • If you’re a City’s former Councilmember, you get <15% of their vote
    • Murray won 12.5% in Anaheim Hills; Wagner won 40.4% there and Sanchez 30.3%
    • Pauly won 14.6% in Villa Park; Wagner won 54.7% there and Sanchez 19.4%
  • In Irvine, Sanchez won 47.0% while Wagner won 36.2%
  • Wagner and Sanchez were the top two in every city/unincorporated area
  • Larry Bales beat both Murray and Pauly in Tustin
  • As expected, Wagner won the 68th Assembly District while Sanchez won the 46th Congressional District

Writing at OCPolitical.com on Tuesday, Chris furnished this analysis on the campaign messaging and tactics underlying the election result:

Here’s a glimpse of what all that campaign activity looked like to two different houses in the Third District: my parents’ house and my house.

Phones

My parents received 6 phone calls from either Don Wagner’s campaign or the Republican Party of Orange County in support of Wagner.  My NPP father also received a robocall from Deborah Pauly that emphasized her support of Donald Trump.

Mail

My parents were kind enough to let me have all their mail from the special election, so the first picture is what it looked like when I spread all of their special election mail on my living room floor, and the second picture is all of my special election mail spread out on the same portion of my living room floor:

My Republican mother and NPP father received 32 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

I received 14 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

Comparing my mail as a Republican voter with the mail sent to my Republican mother (or to both my parents) finds fairly similar compositions.  The radical difference is the mail sent to my NPP father.  He received more pro-Sanchez mail than my mother or I received from all sides in this election.  While all pro-Sanchez forces pushed hard for my father’s vote, OCEA pushed the hardest, producing the majority of all the pro-Sanchez mail my father received.

None of the candidates’ campaigns directly attacked their opponents in the mail, with all the attacks either coordinated through the political parties or done separately by independent expenditures.

As an NPP voter, my father was rather annoyed at how the majority of the pieces addressed to him were overtly partisan.  Of the 28 pieces of my mail addressed to either my father alone or to my father with my mother, a full 16 pieces praised the political party endorsements of the candidates: 9 pieces touting Sanchez’s Democratic Party endorsement and 7 pieces touting Wagner’s Republican Party endorsement.

For those of you who care about the details, here’s the breakdown of the mail in two Nguyen households…

The 14 pieces of mail I received at my home consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 more pieces supporting Wagner and opposing Sanchez, 1 pro-Sanchez piece, 3 pro-Murray pieces, and 3 anti-Murray pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 3 pieces from Murray’s campaign
  • 3 anti-Murray IEs from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

Of the 32 pieces of mail my parents received at their house, 19 were addressed to my NPP father, 4 to my Republican mother, and 9 to both of them.

The 19 pieces of mail addressed solely to my NPP father consisted of 13 pro-Sanchez pieces, 2 pieces supporting Sanchez and attacking Wagner, 3 anti-Wagner pieces, and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Sanchez’s campaign (2 in English, 1 in Vietnamese)
  • 11 IEs from the Orange County Employees Association
    • 6 pro-Sanchez
    • 3 anti-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Sanchez/anti-Wagner
  • 3 pro-Sanchez IEs from the Orange County Attorneys Association
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

The 9 pieces addressed to both my parents consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 pieces supporting Wagner and attacking Sanchez, and 2 pro-Sanchez pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 piece from Sanchez’s campaign
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

The 4 pieces addressed to my Republican mother consisted of 3 pro-Murray pieces and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 1 piece from Murray’s campaign
  • 2 pro-Murray IEs from the California Women’s Leadership Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

3 comments

  1. Who will actually replace Todd Spitzer?
    Thank you!

    • David Michael Klawe

      There is another new article here… “Don Wagner Cements His Victory In 3rd Supervisor District Special Election” I think that will answer your question.

  2. Great analysis. the only bad part is Loretta getting 47% in Irvine. While it’s never been Newport Beach or Huntington Beach or even Anaheim for an outsider to get that large a percentage is disturbing. All the more so since Irvine will make up an even larger percentage of Supervisor, Assembly, state Senate and Congressional districts after redistricting. There was hope that Irvine’s growth would offset the influence of UCI but that hasn’t been the case. Irvine needs to be in the top 5 cities the OCGOP focuses in the next 20 months.

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