[Cross-posted from OC Daily.net]
The 4th Supervisor District is opening up next year as term limits force out Supervisor Shawn Nelson. OC Daily reviewed a number of potential and actual candidates for the seat last month, and more names have surfaced.
First let’s take a look at the rapid change in the partisan balance that’s taken place in the last year. The Democrat and Republican registration had been at parity for a number of years until last year’s presidential election scrambled the status quo. The Democrats now enjoy a significant registration advantage, as is evident from these bar graphs:
At the beginning of 2015, the 4th District was 37.2% Democrat and 35.9% Republican. The percentage had barely moved as 2016 began, at 37% Democrat and 35.4% Republican. However, significant Democratic voter registration gains in 2016- fueled by the presidential election and massively-funded ground-based and online voter registration drives – opened a chasm between the two parties; the 4th District is now 40.2% Democrat, 32.4% Republican and 23.4% No Party Preference.
In raw numbers, GOP registration has been static, while the number of new Democrat and NPP has swelled: approximately three-quarters of new registrations last year in the 4th Supervisor District were Democrats.
A Sanchez or Silva On The 2018 Ballot?
Given the new partisan reality, it’s not surprising the names of more potential Democrat contenders are surfacing.
One is Fullerton Councilman Jesus Silva, the husband of Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (AD65). He was elected to the council last year and would have a free ride to run for supervisor thanks to last month’s 3-2 council vote to put the council district in which Silva lives on the 2020 ballot; click here for the story on that surprising development. The last two 4th District supervisors have been elected from the Fullerton City Council, and the Silva name is a familiar one to many 4th Supervisor District voters. If he ran, there would be two Silvas on the ballot in the 4th, given the overlap between it and AD65.
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