District 3: Moreno Narrows Brandman Lead To 95 Votes

[Cross-posted from OC Daily]

OC Daily might have ventured predictions a mite prematurely yesterday morning, as the evening update resulted in some close races getting even closer.  Riding on the outcome of two close races is the balance-of-power in the state Senate and on the newly-expanded Anaheim City Council.

Senate District 29
51,00 Orange County ballots were counted yesterday, and when combined with updates from LA and San Bernardino counties, Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang’s over Jose Newman  in SD29 shrank from 5,045 votes to 3,684:

sd 29 tally 11-16

A vote pick-up of 1,361 is pretty solid. The bulk of the remaining uncounted ballots are provisionals – which tend to favor Democrats. The question, of course, is how many uncounted ballots remain in SD29.

If Ling Ling Chang wins, Democrats are denied a two-thirds super-majority in the state Senate. If Newman wins, it’s Katy bar the door – the leftists controlling the legislature will be off and running.

Anaheim: Council District 3
Jose F. Moreno, the leftist academic and practitioner par excellence of identity politics, significantly reduced the already narrowing lead held by Councilman Jordan Brandman.

Moreno had been taking bites out of Brandman’s lead for days, but yesterday was a big gulp: he picked up 142 votes and now trails the incumbent by 95 votes.

Democrat turn-out in Anaheim was strong, and a large chunk of the votes counted yesterday were from Anaheim. OC Daily has unconfirmed reports there are approximately 720 vote-by-mail and 1,200 provisional ballots left to count in District 3.

GOP Mayor Tom Tait went all in for Moreno (in contrast to his sub rosa support in 2014). His hopes for an ersatz majority for his final two years in politics rides on Moreno winning. Many of Tait’s supporters on the Right are so tunnel-visioned on hotel subsidies that the true consequences of a Moreno victory elude them.

Moreno’s election would be good news for:

  • Progressives and Berniecrats
  • Supporters of racial/ethnic identity politics
  • Unionizing thousands of Anaheim hotel workers
  • Those who share Marxist historian Howard Zinn’s view of American history
  • Building a mini-welfare state in Anaheim.
  • Advocates of sanctuary city status and radical immigration policies

Tom Tait is out of office in two years; a Councilman Moreno would serve for eight years. Moreno is the leader of a motivated network of identity-politics progressives who are steadily moving into elective office in central Orange County. A Moreno win positions him to move up the political ladder to the state legislature: Assemblyman Tom Daly would be termed out of the 69th Assembly District at the same time Moreno would be termed out of city council. All of this translates into making it that much harder to hold the line against Democrat advances in OC – let alone pushing back.

Food for thought for those thinking long-term.

31 comments

  1. Regarding the 1200 Provisional Ballots. The big question comes down to how many of those were eligible to vote in District 3.

    Those voters may be registered to vote in Orange County, but if they aren’t eligible to vote in District 3 then that race will not be counted on their ballot.

    The Registrar will only count the races on the ballot in which the voter was eligible to vote. (I.e. President and Senate).

    No one should be claiming victory just yet.

    • exactly. But when Matt said that there are about 1200 left to count in district 3 he is accounting for the fact that not all of the privisionals in Oc are from district 3. There are over 100 k provisional ballots in the county of which about 1200 are from dist. 3

      Don’t worry steve should be fine. . Lopez would need to get 80 percent of the provisional votes and still a few more from the other categories to win. I predict that your gut will hold on and won by about 300 votes.

      • Of course the nice thing about Moreno winning is that Steve will have less pressure on him to vote with Murray and Kring. Instead of 4-3 he can vote with the majority at least on the give away issues.

      • My earlier statement about no one claiming victory was directed towards the race in District 3.

        I’m not worried about District 5.

        I seriously doubt that Faessel’s margin of victory will drop to just 300 votes. The remaining VBM’s and valid provisional votes would need to break for Lopez by 650.

        Lopez really hurt himself with that whole pandering thing about sanctuary cities and his bone-headed robo-call about opposing them. It revealed his dishonesty to the deep-red Republican voters that typically vote by mail or bring their absentee ballots to the polling place.

        The VBM ballots that are being counted now were submitted on election day or a day or two before, which was after that whole fiasco took place.

        The provisionals would first need to be valid for District 5 to even be considered for Lopez.

        I suspect the area between Lincoln, 91 Freeway, East Street and La Palma was a major source of provisional ballots. I live in that area and there was a drought of Lopez signs and support. Most of the signs were Acevedo or Faessel. Faessel’s support was overwhelmingly long-time registered voters. So, I think Acevedo will see an uptick in her vote count.

        I think another large source of provisional ballots could have come from the remaining apartment communities, which I predict will also tilt more towards Acevedo.

        So, I predict Acevedo closing the gap with Lopez. However, Faessel still keeps his substantial lead.

        • As far as a Moreno victory in District 3 and Anaheim majority towards the Tait Slate goes, we’ll have to wait and see.

        • I agree with you pretty much down the line here, David, although I do think that Lopez got a bad rap with the (highly effective) claim that his supporting certain aspects of Anaheim’s status quo meant all-in support for the most aggressive versions of “Sanctuary City” status. Still, he could have rebutted it better.

          I also agree with the commenter who noted that Steve Faessel’s life will personally be easier in an otherwise 4-2 pro-Tait Council then it would be in an otherwise 3-3 one, where he’d have continual and aggressive policing of his votes. Faessel knows a lot about the City, but he has a lot to learn about the problems with the City’s studies and reports on the Resort District — which should disturb anyone of intelligence and probity. In a 4-2 + him Council, I am optimistic about his being able to become an honest broker on these issues — at least listening to and having to address Tait’s criticisms of their methodology (as opposed to the “we have 3 votes so shut up” strategy of the current majority. As you say, we’ll have to wait and see.

          What I do NOT agree with is Matt’s dire warning that the election of Jose Moreno proclaims the institution of some sort of Sandinista regime. It’s really laughable. He’s going to be the only Democrat among 6 Republicans — and none of those closest to him on the dais hold the views Matt tries to scare people with, even to the dubious extent that he holds all of them himself!

          As with the Obama Administration coming into power in 2009, the new majority (if Moreno wins) will be so busy trying to clean up the messes caused by the old that they’re going to have limited time to create big new programs. But they can certainly investigate the truths about the City — that’s part of cleaning up the mess — and I hope that Faessel will do the honorable thing and being an active, even if skeptical, part of that process.

    • suoirafeN ekiM snibboR

      I will say that as of Thursday there have been 0 ineligible votes. The problem lies in the signatures that I saw. Your signature in 1984 is different than today.

  2. Now lets go Arturo! A majority is within the people’s sights

  3. Sounds like people are getting nervous. Go Arturo too!

  4. “Darkness cannot drive out darkness, only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate only love can do that.” Martin Luther King

    Love your neighbors.

  5. It’s down to a 62 vote difference in the D3 race! How exciting!

    Also, opposed to what you might be selling people, this has nothing to do with identity politics. It has to do with the commitments of the candidates. Jose f moreneno is more committed to the people of D3. Jordan has more of a commitment to Disney (hence why they spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in favor of brandman and against Jose.)

    Furthermore, Jose’s victory would signal the end of Disney’s control over Anaheim’s budget. It’s concerning is that you continue to push the largest minimum wage producing company in Southern California as our savior. Even the economists in Orange County don’t buy it. The recent economic report clearly stated that this intervention in the free market continues to hurt Orange County.

    I’m glad the Disney candidates will possibly lose. It will make organizing against the Disney lies a lot easier. I understand that Disney wants to maximize its profit, but when it’s against the interest of the residents of Anaheim that continue to pay for their hotels, their property taxes, and the police presence in the Disney area.

    Keep writing, though! Your posts are funny and inciteful into Disney’s strategies.

    I look forward to how you’re going to reason why we should spend a super majority of our transportation budget on a street car that is likely to fail (not that Steve Chavez lodge – the guy hired to “research” the impact) would admit that failure after being paid so much by Disney.
    (:

    • So, Angel: when are you moving back to San Francisco?

      • Cute fallacy. Also, waiting for Steve lodge to “move out” from the apartment he never stayed out while he was running his losing campaign.

        (:

        • Incessantly bitter Alt Left Thug Coddling Jose F Moreno!!!!

        • How about Joe Moreno “running” in District 4 as a spoiler to water down the Democratic numbers against Arturo Ferreras. He is a Disney employee who did this against Jose Moreno last election. Disney and their like do this to prevent a Tait majority. You can only fool the people so long. The people of Anaheim are demanding transparency. We do not live in Disneyland rather, Disneyland is located in the city of Anaheim. The people are “raging against the machine” and will prevail.

        • Oh the hypocrisy behind Angel Van Stark. You move to San Fran and ingratiate yourself into city politics. An area you hadn’t lived in for very long. Then you move to Anaheim and do exactly the same thing. Yet you say Steve is carpet bagger?
          Interesting. I would think that someone who truly wanted to win would have actually ran a decent campaign. Yet you only took 2% of the vote. Truth be told, you, “Freddy is Ready” and Orlando Perez shouldn’t have even ran. All it did was dilute votes from the actual candidates that had real viability.

      • suoirafeN ekiM snibboR

        The Canadians have blocked American refugees as I said but –
        I also believe that SanFran and other cities following the mess here are trying to head off a crisis by also blocking refugees from Anaheim.
        I read that SF is still accepting male refugees from Anaheim that are minimum 6′ 1″ and under 215 lb from 20 to 40 in age that have at least $1 mil in the bank.
        60 votes and counting…
        Today 5 pm should tell a lot about Jose and Jordan
        Jordan’s people are flagging every Latino vote – how weird it is to watch as they check the votes. The screens are really small and with several people standing around trying to see, it is difficult to see anything. Peoples signatures change over the decades so if the original is from 1984 it rarely checks with the one today. 0 votes have been rejected so far.

    • Today is Mickey Mouse Birthday!!! Let’s have a street car ribbon cutting ceremony on November 18th 2017!!!

    • Don’t forget wish Mickey Mouse Happy Birthday!

  6. Because the Secretary of States website updates are so out of sync with the county updates it’s hard to figure out a total for multi-county districts but it looks like Ling Ling Chang is on the downward trend and it looks like there’s a really good chance she might lose.

    • You could check the updates on Orange Juice Blog, where we take the extraordinary step of checking all three of the relevant county websites.

      • I checked all three, too, Greg – but I prefer posting accurate numbers, rather than adding up numbers of various vintage.

        But you keep on being the Smartest Blogger You Know.

        • Actually check the OC Vote site for accurate counting. Currently Jose Moreno is only down 61.

        • Looking up the numbers of all three county websites is setting an awfully low bar for “smartest blogger.” I’m surprised to see you claim that you didn’t clear it.

          I’m not sure what you mean by “of different vintage, but I use the most recent estimates from each county’s website as of 5 p.m. That works fine for both OC and SB, but LA only updates its website twice a week. Are you saying that you’d exclude those numbers? Not me: the best estimate available at 4:59 p.m. Friday of what the numbers will say at 5:01 Friday is still what they said at 4:59 p.m. Tuesday. We know thatthey’ll have changed … but we don’t know how, and it makes no sense to toss out the info that we DO have.

          • You must be the most anal retentive blogger in the planet. I made simple statement about preferring the most up-to-date numbers, and you launch into this weird, convoluted rationalization of whatever actual information you bury in your interminable, insufferably self-indulgent screeds. Good God, man – do you have no comprehension of what a painful read you are?

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